“Everybody has a chance,” says Roger Hickman, a two time overall winner who is sailing on the Corby 49 Limit which will still be at sea when the maxis and the 50 to 65 foot grand prix racers like Yendys, Rosebud and Quantum Racing are already in Hobart.

“Nobody will take the pedal off until it’s over and so you do have a chance until the very end. This year, with the two fronts forecast, the boat that gets in before the second front may have the best chance based on the weather.”

The forecast remains unchanged from Friday, the Bureau predicting a fast, downwind race for the first two days before a mild southeast change along the East Coast of Tasmania on Friday, then more northerlies before another front for the smaller boats back up the track on the weekend. 

Ray Roberts, the skipper of the highly fancied Cookson 50 Quantum Racing worries that in those first two days the maxis could get away from the fleet.  “If the conditions are hard running and not too severe in Bass Strait the maxis could get a bit of a jump on us.  We have to hope that they run into a bit of a southerly that holds them up.”

Nevertheless Roberts likes the forecast. “Having a canting keel boat, off the wind stuff certainly helps.” He rates the similar sized, state of the art boats like Yendys (a Reichel Pugh 55), Wot Yot (TP 52) and the American Rosebud (Transpac 65) as his biggest threats.  “All of the latest designs are good off the wind boats and they’re going to do well.”

Mike Green, another former Hobart winner racing on Wot Yot this year, believes the winning yacht will come from this ultra competitive size range. He rates Geoff Ross’ Yendys as the boat to beat. “We decided to set our boat up with the express effort of hanging onto Yendys in the first 24 hours and that’s all we’re set up for. After that it’s in the lap of the gods. We don’t know what is going to happen.”

In turn, Geoff Ross is worried about Rosebud. “Yendys is optimised for upwind sailing, but downhill in lighter conditions we are very fast. But if the nor’easter is very fresh Rosebud could get way from us.” 

There are many factors, all unknown at this stage, which will determine the overall winner. While their families are lost in the Christmas blur, skippers and navigators right across the fleet are pondering whether the first front will be 20 knots or 35? Will it come in time to slow down the maxis, or after they are already safely in Hobart? Where are the currents, and will they be fast enough to decide the outcome like they were in 2006? What will the winds do off the Tasmanian coast?  And then there is the fickle Derwent River. Sail into it at the right time of day and you can storm up to the finish line like a hero. After midnight it can become a very large parking lot. 

“Probably the most pre-eminent yachtsman I know is Syd Fisher,” Hickman says, “and Syd’s always said the race should finish at Tasman Island. He would have won hundreds. But it doesn’t, it ends in the Derwent and the Derwent can be very frustrating and can be very pleasing. You can pick up an hour or two [in the river] fairly easily if you are lucky enough.”

The golden rule is to win your division, and then hope that the conditions over the whole duration of the race turn out to suit boats of your size and rating. That means making the right tactical decisions and pushing your boat all the way.

Ed Psaltis, a former overall winner and the skipper of the Farr 40 AFR Midnight Rambler has always said that the race is won at night.  That is when crews are tempted to relax a bit. And even when you dock in Hobart at the head of the fleet there are no guarantees. In 2002 Mike Green was on the winning boat, Quest, but “we had to wait for a day and a half for Zeus (one of the oldest and smallest boats in the fleet) to finish before we won, and then it was only by four minutes.”

Ray Roberts knows how frustrating it can be. For years his have been among the top boats in the fleet but the Tattersall’s Cup has eluded him so far.  “It is a bit of an obsession for me now. I’ve been doing this sailing bit for over thirty years and it’s the only big race I haven’t won. I’ve come close on many occasions. It’s always tantalising.  You can be 10 hours from the end of the race and think, boy, we’ve just about got this one, and then you go slow going up the Derwent and it slips away from you.

“It’s tantalising but at the same time agonising. If you don’t have that bit of obsession that’s driving you, then I don’t think you end up on the podium.”

The Bureau will present its official preliminary race forecast to skippers and crews tomorrow, 24 December, as part of the race briefings that will be held at the CYCA at 9am and 11am, the second briefing a repeat of the first.  

The final weather briefing will be held at the CYCA at 8.30am on Wednesday 26 December, start day. - Jim Gale/Lisa Ratcliff