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Vanessa Dudley from the Welbourn 42 Wedgetail
ROLEX/Daniel Forster
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“It ain’t gonna happen”. That’s Mike Slade’s summation of the chase for the Rolex Sydney Hobart race record that was being touted as a possibility a couple of days ago.Given the forecast and the extra 10 tonnes of weight City Index Leopard is carrying over Skandia and Wild Oats XI, the quintessential Englishman’s hopes for his long-awaited Rolex Sydney Hobart line honours win with this Australian-made, purpose built 30 metre maxi look set to be dashed. He fancies Wild Oats XI and Skandia, and even the modified Volvo 70 Ichi Ban, which could sneak up on the 30m maxis should they park when the breeze swings to the south, but he’s not giving up just yet. “We’ve got a good fight on our hands. We didn’t come here to lose,” Slade said this morning. Wild Oats XI skipper Mark Richards concurs that “records are elusive and with the forecast, you would have to be doing well to beat it. “Don’t rip up your ticket yet, it’s going to be a tricky race,” smiled Richards who will lead a highly decorated crew boasting 233 Rolex Sydney Hobarts amongst them, the most of any boat in the 82-strong fleet. They are being careful not to jinx themselves by giving much weight to the fact that history may be re-written this year. While largely unsaid, there is a lot riding on this race for Richards and owner Bob Oatley. As well as trying to keep the UK Leopard out of the hunt, Wild Oats XI is chasing a hat trick of line honours wins, a feat not achieved since Claude Plowman’s Morna beat the fleet to Hobart in the 1946, 1947 and 1948 Sydney Hobarts. Skippers and navigators fronted at this morning’s official race briefing to be told by the Bureau of Meteorology that a nor’easter of around 10 knots should greet the fleet at the two start lines on Sydney Harbour at 1pm on Boxing Day, 26 December. It is expected to freshen and by the time the lead boats reach Jervis Bay they should be running under spinnaker ahead of a sprightly 20-25 knot sea breeze. Early strong tail winds will put the front runners on record-breaking pace but the likelihood of a race record looks set to evaporate as fast as the northerly that drops out before being replaced by a weak southerly change which should sweep up the NSW South Coast on Thursday, and could last up to 18 hours. “Thursday is going to be a critical day for everyone,” says Vanessa Dudley, a 13-time race veteran and helmsperson on the Welbourn 42 Wedgetail from Queensland who considers the forecast favourable for their size boat. A forecast swing back to a northerly flow on Thursday night is good news for the backmarkers who will be left stranded in the wake of the largest in the fleet in the strong running conditions, before a second southerly, due on the weekend, puts the brakes on again. The Rolex Sydney Hobart fleet will start at 1.00pm from two start lines off Nielsen Park with boats on the northern line rounding Victor Mark and boats on the southern line rounding X-Ray Mark, at the Heads, and all boats heading out to sea and rounding Mark Zulu, one nautical mile east of the Heads. The biggest boats will start off the front line north of Shark Island and the rest of the fleet will start from the back line, 0.2 nautical miles behind. Having two rounding marks at Sydney Heads will compensate for the distance between the two lines before the fleet heads out to sea and then south to Hobart. Wedgetail will be one of the smallest on the front start line, Dudley describing the feeling of being “monstered by them [the 30m maxis]” as “thrilling”. The final weather briefing will be held at the CYCA on Wednesday 26 December at 8.30pm. The race start will be broadcast live on Channel 7 from 12.30pm AEST. - Lisa Ratcliff
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