Weather Forecast – Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race

• NEWS
• 22 Dec, 2016 11:00:00 AM

Weather Forecast – Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race

Overview

The main drivers of the wind and weather over the race are

• A building High Pressure System in the Tasman Sea. This will produce strong north to northeasterly winds over race waters for parts of the race.  
• Two cold fronts passing over southeastern Australia. The first is expected on the 26^th with a S/SW wind change. The second on the 29^th or 30^th with a W/SW wind change.
• A large low pressure trough over Western Australia which is linking to a couple of tropical systems, one of which is Tropical Cyclone Yvette. What happens with this trough is the main driver of uncertainty in the timing of the wind changes. Uncertainty should decrease as the forecast gets refined closer to Boxing Day.

Wind and waves

• North to northeasterly winds along the NSW coast during Monday.
  • Moderate to fresh (~15-20 knots) in Sydney Harbour at around 1pm
  • Winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots (possibly stronger) outside the Heads and down the NSW coast.
• Gusty south southwesterly wind change forecast to move up the southern NSW coast late Monday as a front passes through.
  • Current guidance puts this wind change at Montague Island between 5pm and midnight.
  • NOTE - considerable uncertainty in the timing.
• S/SW winds should back to SE after about 12 hours, then by NE again within 24 hours.
  • Based on current timing, moderate NNE winds by midnight Tuesday night
  • Strengthening NE winds during Wednesday 28th.
• Another wind change (west or southwest) on Thursday 29^th or Friday 30^th with the passage of a low pressure system and the second front over Tasmania.
• Significant wave heights of 2.5 to 3 metres, with an E/NE swell to start. Moderate southerly swell coming through on Tuesday.

Watch the Long Range Weather Forecast Press Conference below.